É um artigo interessante, e ajuda a perceber que não será nada fácil aos EUA ganhar uma guerra contra a Coreia do Norte... Mas há alguns pontos que é importante referir, mesmo que sejam apenas exageros de linguagem, visto que podem empolar um pouco a conclusão final...
In contrast, North Korea has not only the military power but also the political will to wage total war against the United States. North Korea has made it clear that it will strike all US targets with all means, if the US mounted military attacks on North Korea.
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Third, North Korea's total war plan has two components: massive conventional warfare and weapons of mass destruction. If the US mounts a preemptive strike on North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear plants, North Korea will retaliate with weapons of mass destruction: North Korea will mount strategic nuclear attacks on the US targets. The US war planners know this and have drawn up their own nuclear war plan. In a nuclear exchange, there is no front or rear areas, no defensive positions or attack formations as in conventional warfare. Nuclear weapons are offensive weapons and there is no defense against nuclear attacks except retaliatory nuclear attacks. For this reason, North Korea's war plan is offensive in nature: North Korea's war plan goes beyond repulsing US attackers and calls for destruction of the United States.
Isto não é mais do que um exagero de retórica. O Iraque era caracterizado nos mesmos termos, ainda na altura da 1ª Guerra do Golfo, quando tinha efectivamente armas de destruição maciça, e nunca as usou. E provavelmente passar-se-á o mesmo num conflito com a Coreia do Norte - se eles atacarem as forças americanas por todos os meios, o que inclui guerra nuclear, química e bacteriológica, sabem que, minutos depois têm dezenas de ICBM's a voarem em direcção ao seu território. Se a Coreia do Norte usar qualquer destas armas, pura e simplesmente desaparece do mapa. Mesmo que eles aceitem esta realidade e decidam usá-las, o que implicará a morte de milhares ou milhões de sul-coreanos e americanos, a verdade é que no final, perderam... Os EUA já afirmaram várias vezes que usarão armas nucleares como forma de retaliação, e não duvido que, independentemente da cor política da Administração, essa ameaça será cumprida.
a) North Korea makes its own weapons
North Korea has annual production capacity for 200,000 AK automatic guns, 3,000 heavy guns, 200 battle tanks, 400 armored cars and amphibious crafts. North Korea makes its own submarines, landing drafts, high-speed missile-boats, and other types of warships. Home-made weaponry makes it possible for North Korea to maintain a large military force on a shoestring budget. North Korea defense industry is made of three groups: weapon production, production of military supplies, and military-civilian dual-use product manufacturing.
North Korea has 17 plants for guns and artillery, 35 plants for ammunition, 5 plants for tanks and armored cars, 8 plants for airplanes, 5 plants for warships, 3 plants for guided missiles, 5 plants for communication equipment, and 8 plants for biochemical warheads - 134 plants in total. In addition, many plants that make consumer products are designed so that they can be made to produce military items with minimum modification. About 180 of defense related plants are built underground in the rugged mountainous areas of Jagang-do. Several small to medium hydro-power plants serve these plants so that it would be nearly impossible for the US to cut off power to the plants.
Esta capacidade é importante em tempo de paz, para poder criar um exército de grandes proporções. Mas em tempo de guerra, tendo em conta as capacidades de ataque estratégico dos EUA, ela torna-se irrelevante. Não tenho dúvidas que entre 150 a 190 B-1, B-2 e B-52 conseguem destruir 80% ou 90% dessa capacidade poucos dias...
c) North Korean soldiers are well indoctrinated
The US commanders admit that North Korean soldiers are highly motivated and loyal to Kim Jong Il, and that they will fight well in case of war. Karl von Clausewitz said that people's support for war, military commanders' ability and power, and the political leadership are the three essentials for winning war. He failed to include the political indoctrination of the soldiers, which is perhaps more important than the other factors cited.
During the Iraq War just ended, the main cause of Iraq's defeat was the low moral of its soldiers. Iraqi soldiers had no will to stand and fight, and they ran away or surrendered without fight. Iraqi soldiers believed in Allah protecting them and became easy preys to the US military. North Korean soldiers are taught to fight to the bitter end. In September 1996, a North Korean submarine got stranded at Kangrung, South Korea, and its crew abandoned the ship. Eleven of the crew committed suicide and the rest fought to the last man except one who was captured. In June 1998, another submarine got caught in fishing nets at Sokcho and its crew killed themselves. Such is the fighting spirit of North Korean soldiers.
Ver para crer... A lealdade dos soldados (e não apenas de membros das unidades de elite) só pode ser avaliada quando as "bombas começarem a chover"... A Guarda Republicana Iraquiana também desapareceu ao fim de poucos dias de operações...
d) North Koreans are combat ready
One cannot fight war without military preparedness. North Korea's regular army is for offensive actions whereas its militias are homeland defense. North Korea's regular army consists of 4 corps in the front area, 8 corps in the rear area, one tank corps, 5 armored corps, 2 artillery corps, and 1 corps for the defense of Pyongyang, South Korea has 19 infantry divisions whereas North Korea has 80 divisions and brigades.
A North Korean infantry division has 3 infantry regiments, 1 artillery regiment (3 battalions of 122 mm rocket launchers and 1 battalion of 152 mortars), one tank battalion of 31 tanks, one anti-tank battalion, one anti-aircraft battalion, one engineer battalion, one communication battalion, one light-infantry battalion, one recon battalion, and one chemical warfare battalion.
North Korea's militias consist of 1.6 million self-defense units, 100,000 people's guards, 3.9 million workers militia, 900,000 youth guard units. These militias are tasked to defend the homeland. The militias are fully armed and undergo military trainings regularly.
Números impressionantes, sem dúvida... Mas números não chegam. Os próprios chineses já começaram a abandonar à muito tempo esta estratégia. Os principais corpos do exército é que são verdadeiramente as forças de combate da Coreia do Norte - e não sei qual é a capacidade destes de garantirem a sua própria logística em caso de guerra. Um corpo blindado de pouco serve se ficar sem combustível...
Ao fim de 2 a 3 semanas de guerra total, creio que a maioria das forças coreanas estariam reduzidas a unidades apeadas armadas com AK-47's. Eu não digo que não sejam capazes de fazer muitos estragos, mas a verdade é que a maior parte da sua força ofensiva desaparece em poucas semanas...
i) Artillery
North Korea has 2 artillery corps and 30 artillery brigades equipped with 120mm self-propelled guns, 152mm self-propelled mortars, 170mm guns with a range of 50 km, 240 mm multiple rocket launchers with a range of 45 km, and other heavy guns. North Korea has about 18,000 heavy guns. North Korea's 170mm Goksan gun and 240mm multiple-tube rocket launchers are the most powerful guns of the world. These guns can lob shells as far south as Suwon miles beyond Seoul. The big guns are hidden in caves. Many of them are mounted on rails and can fire in all directions. They can rain 500,000 conventional and biochemical shells per hour on US troops near the DMZ. The US army bases at Yijong-bu, Paju, Yon-chun, Munsan, Ding-gu-chun, and Pochun will be obliterated in a matter of hours.
The US army in Korea is equipped with Paladin anti-artillery guns that can trace enemy shells back to the guns and fire shells at the enemy guns with pin-point accuracy. However, it takes for the Paladins about 10 min to locate the enemy guns, during which time the Paladins would be targeted by the enemy guns Gen. Thomas A Schwartz, a former US army commander in Korea, stated that the US army in Korea would be destroyed in less than three hours.
Para mim, esta força de artilharia deverá ser um dos principais medos dos americanos, e com razão (é por isso que falam cada vez mais em retirar as suas forças para o Sul do país). Mas a realidade é que ela é sobretudo eficaz nos primeiros momentos da guerra, para esmagar as defesas em torno da DMZ. Em seguida, as características do terreno impediriam ou dificultariam muito o transporte das peças mais pesadas. E há ainda a questão da direcção de tiro, que seria muito mais complexa do que bombardear a linha de fronteira no ataque inicial - será preciso acompanhar as forças ofensivas, dando-lhes o apoio que precisam, e realizando fogo de contra-bateria. Isto exige uma boa rede de comunicações, radares e uma coordenação muito boa.
ii). Blitz Klieg
North Korea has tanks, armored cars, and self-propelled artillery for blitz klieg. North Korea has one tank corps and 15 tank brigades. The tank corps has 5 tank regiments, each of which has 4 heavy tank battalions, 1 light-tank battalion, one mechanized infantry battalion, 2 self-propelled artillery battalions.
US tanks are designed to operate in open fields. In 1941, Rommel of Germany defeated British troops in North Africa with tanks. The largest tank battle was fought at Kursk in 1943, in which the Soviets defeated Germans. In 1973, Egypt defeated Israeli tanks with anti-tank missiles. All of these tank battles were fought in open fields. The Gulf War and the recent war in Iraq saw US tanks in open fields. American and Western tank commanders do not know how to fight tank battles in rugged terrains like those of Korea. Tank battles in Korea will be fought on hilly terrains without any close air cover, because North Korean fighters will engage US planes in close dog fights.
North Korea has developed tanks ideally suited for the many rivers and mountains of Korea. These tanks are called "Chun-ma-ho", which can navigate steep slopes and cross rivers as much as 5.5 m deep. North Korea's main battle tanks - T-62s - have 155 mm guns and can travel as fast as 60 km per hour. The US main tanks - M1A - have 120 mm guns and cannot travel faster than 55 km per hour. North Korean tanks have skins 700 mm thick and TOW-II is the only anti-tank missile in the US arsenal that can penetrate this armored skin.
O terreno não é só mau para os americanos... As forças Norte-Coreanas também não poderia usar os seus tanques en-masse... E num campo de batalha estreito, como um vale, sem espaço de manobra, o que conta é a resistência frontal da blindagem, a velocidade de tiro e a eficácia do canhão - aqui os coreanos estão a anos-luz dos americanos.
Há aqui números que são mandados para enganar propositadamente quem não percebe nada de assuntos militares. Primeiro dizem que o terreno é irregular, sem espaços abertos, e que não se presta às tácticas tradicionais. E depois dizem que os blindados coreanos são mais rápidos... De que serve a velocidade neste caso?
Por outro lado, os tanques coreanos, ou são anfíbios (Type 63 e Type 82), ou são os vetustos T-62. Usam peças, respectivamente de 85mm e 115mm (onde é que eles foram buscar um calibre de 155m é que eu não sei... :?
North Korea has the largest special forces, 120,000 troops, in the world. These troops are grouped into light infantry brigades, attack brigades, air-borne brigades, and sea-born brigades - 25 brigades in total. These troops will be tasked to attack US military installations in Korea, Japan, Okinawa and Guam.
Ninguém consegue treinar 120.000 homens ao nível que nós consideramos típico de uma força de operações especiais. O grosso destas forças seria usado como infantaria ligeira de assalto.
b. Air Defense
North Korea has a large number of ground-to-air missiles. It has SA-2 and SA-3 missiles against low-flying enemy planes, and SA-5 missiles for high-altitude planes. SA-5 missiles have an effective range of 250 km. SA-5 missiles can hit enemy planes flying over the middle of South Korea.
North Korea has reengineered US shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles captured in Vietnam, and designed its own missile, wha-sung. North Korea began to manufacture wha-sung missiles in 1980. Wha-sung comes in two models: SA-7 that has an effective range of 5 km and SA-16 with 10 km range. North Korea has more than 15,000 wha-sung missiles in place.
A maioria destes mísseis estão obsoletos e já existem à tanto tempo, que os americanos já desenvolveram contra-medidas e estratégias para reduzir a sua eficácia...
In addition to the missiles, North Korea has 12,000 anti-aircraft guns, including 37mm twin-barrel guns, 23 mm automatics, 57mm, 87mm, and 100mm heavy guns. These are mostly manually operated and thus not subject to electronic warfare.
Esta passagem é uma anedota... Essas peças são operadas manualmente, e isso realmente torna-as imunes a guerra electrónica, mas a verdade é que também as torna totalmente ineficazes de noite, com mau tempo, ou contra aviões a jacto...
North Korea has anti-ship missiles of 95km range, and of 160km range. The latter are for hitting US carrier battle groups over the horizon. North Korean anti-ship missiles can hit ships anchored at Inchon on the west and Sokcho on the east.
Um míssil de 160km de alcance baseado na costa não tem alcance para atacar um CVN, que estaria sempre a operar mais longe...
d. Sea Battles
North Korea has two fleets - the West Fleet and the East Fleet. The West Fleet has 6 squadrons of 320 ships and the East Fleet has 10 squadron of 460 ships. The navy has a total manpower of 46,000. North Korean ships are sheltered from US attacks in about 20 bunkers of 200-900 m longs and 14-22 m wide. North Korean ships are small and agile, designed for coastal defense. North Korean ships carry 46km range ship-to-ship missiles and 22-channel multiple rocket launchers.
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North Korea acquired OSA and KOMAR high-speed missile boats in 1968, and began to build its own missile boats in 1981. It has more than 50 missile boats, each equipped with 4 missiles of 46km range and multiple rocket launchers. In addition, North Korea has about 300 speed boats, 200 torpedo boats and 170 other gunboats. In case of war, North Korea's small crafts and submarines will swarm around US career task forces and destroy them.
A maioria destes barcos está obsoleta ou não tem capacidade de combate relevante. Primeiro, teriam que encontrar os porta-aviões. E depois, seria um milagre se se conseguissem aproximar o suficiente para lançar os mísseis. A maioria destes barcos também não tem defesas anti-aéreas dignas desse nome...
North Korea's fighter planes are ill-equipped for air-to-air combats at long distances. but they can hold their own in close-quarter air combats. MiG-21 fighters from Bongchun and US F-15 from Ohsan would meet in less than 5 min, assuming they took off at about the same time. In about 5 min, hundreds of MiG21s and F-15s would be swirling in the skies over Korea. Ground-to-air missiles and air-to-air missiles would have hard time telling friends from foes. F-15Es are equipped with a radar system that lock on at 180 km for large objects and 90 km for small objects. Sidewinder missiles have an effective range of 16km, AMRAAM missiles of 50km, and Sparrow of 55km.
Korea is 100 km wide and 125 km long, and so US air-to-air missiles would be of limited use and effectiveness, because North Korean MiGs would approach the US planes in close proximity and commingle with US planes, and air-to-air missiles will become useless and machines guns will have to be used. MiG19s have 30mm guns, MiG21s have 23mm guns, and F-14s have 20mm Valkans. North Korean pilots are trained to hug the enemy planes so that air-to-air missiles cannot be used. In contrast, US pilots are trained to lock on the enemy at long distance with radar and fire missiles. US planes are heavily armed with electronics and less agile than the light, lean MiGs that can climb and turn faster than the US planes.
F-14s are about 3.3 times heavier than MiG21s, and F-150Es are about 3.6 times heavier. MiG21s are 16.6 m long whereas F-14s are 19.1 m and F-15Es 19.43 m long. MiG21s cab climb to 18km, whereas F-1A can climb to 15.8 km and F-16 to 15.2 km. MiGs get upper hands in close-range dogfights in which agility matters. In Vietnam, US planes were forced to jettison auxiliary gas tanks and bombs in order to engage MiGs. F-150 E planes will carry BLU-113 bunker busters that weigh 2,250 kg each in the next war in Korea. Loaded with such a heavy bomb, F-15s will become easy targets for North Korea's MiGs. US fighter-bombers will be protected by F-15C fighter escorts.
MiG21s are North Korea's main workhorse. The MiG21 debuted in 1965 in Vietnam and proved itself as an effective attack fighter. In 1999, North Korea bought 40 MiG21s from Kazakhstan. During the Vietnam War, MiG17s shot down dozens of American planes. North Korea sent more than 200 pilots to fight in the Vietnam War. They were tasked to defend Hanoi and shot down scores of US planes. North Korea sent 25 pilots to Syria during the 3rd Arab-Israeli war of 1966, and 30 pilots to Egypt and Syria during the 4th Arab-Israeli war of 1973. In 1976, North Korea sent more than 40 pilots to Syria.
Os aviões americanos teriam mais do que possibilidade de atacar as aeronaves coreanas em acções BVR. Quando dizem que um F-15 e um MiG-21 se encontram em 5 minutos depois de levantar voo, esquecem-se de dizer que o F-15 pode detectar logo o Mig, acelarar para velocidades supersónicas e lançar um AMRAAM antes do piloto do MiG saber o que lhe aconteceu...
Para além do mais, não tenho dúvidas que um piloto americano de um F-15C, que se treina exclusivamente para combate ar-ar seja mais do que capaz de destruir um MiG-21. Com isto não quero dizer que haveria baixas zero do lado americano; apenas que não seria o inferno que aqui descrevem...
North Korea relies heavily on non-electronic command and control means, and hence US e-bombs will have limited impacts in North Korea.
Que meios não electrónicos? Sinais de fumo? :oops:
O que eu queria dizer é que a Coreia do Norte é um inimigo a temer, que não deve ser subestimado, mas também não deve ser sobre-estimado...
A sua capacidade ofensiva estaria seriamente degradada ou seria inexistente depois de uma a duas semanas de guerra, e a maioria dos seus sistemas e doutrinas de emprego estão a anos-luz das suas equivalentes americanas... O que não quer dizer que os americanos não possam perder esta guerra...